As I mentioned last December, the Supreme Court should be releasing their decision this summer in the case involving Texas’s age verification law. It could be a hugely consequential ruling…or not. I’m not smart enough to predict what the outcome will be. But I do expect that it will likely be one of two outcomes – either completely unexpected and surprising or else anticlimactic with the court sending the case back to the lower court for review. But I really have no idea.

The legal question under review is very boring, focusing on which level of legal scrutiny the Texas law is subject to and whether it passes that scrutiny. It’s a dry distinction between “strict scrutiny” versus “rational basis review” (or possibly “intermediate scrutiny” though experts say that’s a less likely outcome.) Basically, as I understand it, the court is deciding if the Texas law is narrowly tailored enough in its stated goal, which is to keep minors off porn sites. Does the law impose too much of a burden on adults who have the First Amendment right to view online porn or is the law not overly burdensome? At least that’s my layman’s take on what’s under review.

If the court upholds Texas’s age verification law, then the outcome could be significant, possibly leading to a national age verification law for porn sites. On the other hand, if the court sends the case back to the lower court for review, then there could be endless legal challenges for years as individual states pass their own laws. The arguments are dry as dust, but I am more than a bit obsessed with the case, I’ll admit, since it could directly affect me and Trannies In Trouble.

If we were to end up with a national age verification law, then one almost inevitable outcome is that the law would be poorly executed and really wouldn’t keep minors off porn sites. A study on Louisiana’s age verification law found that sites that comply with the law likely suffer a drop in traffic whereas those that don’t comply with the law, such as XVideos (based in Europe), get a boost. Another likely outcome is that when age verification laws are put in place, online searches for VPNs (virtual private networks) go way up, with young people often way savvier users than adults. (VPNs, of course, allow you to appear to be logging on from a different state, allowing you to bypass the law). And yes, I certainly want to keep minors off my website as much as anyone. If we do end up with a national law I would of course comply, even if the law is lame and ineffective. I certainly don’t want to risk getting busted or fined.

My gut feeling, though, is that with the current political climate in the US that we’re ripe for some new anti-porn laws. As I’ve said before, whether you love or hate Donald Trump, the political climate in the country has shifted. I’ll be the first to admit I’m more than a little paranoid, but new anti-porn legislation seems almost inevitable when you consider what we’re seeing on other cultural and legal fronts, especially with the endless anti-trans laws and executive orders. The decision that would really surprise me is if the court were somehow to rule that age verification laws are unconstitutional and we just go back to the status quo with click-thru boxes saying, “Yes, sure, I’m over 18. Of course I am!” The likelihood of that happening seems miniscule. As one recent article put it, “The Online Porn Free-for-All is Coming to an End.“

There may be other technological ways that could make age verification work better, maybe – existing parental filters and possibly so-called “device-based age verification” – but neither of those approaches have been widely embraced by legislators and society at large. And if one website requires age verification, then there will of course be thousands of other sites that are non-compliant, many hosted outside the US. So basically, we have laws that don’t really work but that allow legislators to say, “Hey, we at least did something.” Plus, age verification laws have the added benefit of just making it harder for webmasters to run a porn site. I’m reminded of Russell Vought’s statement, “We’d have a national ban on porn if we could, right?” Vought of course is the current head of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) and one of the most competent policy wonks of the current administration.

One of the biggest dangers of age verification laws is that they could easily be used to limit access to material that isn’t porn, so that even search results for sex education or LGBTQ issues could be put behind an “age gate.” The potential for overreach is obvious, where material that simply acknowledges the reality of being gay or trans could end up being treated as pornographic. And of course, there are the huge privacy risks and risks of identity theft if users are required to upload their driver’s license or take a facial scan just to look at a compliant porn site.

So here we are. I’ve never before been in a wait and see mode like this, waiting for a ruling from the Supreme Court, which again could be this huge thing or completely anticlimactic. We should know soon enough.